SIMULATION-BASED ROBUSTNESS ASSESSMENT OF ASTANA’S BUS NETWORK UNDER RANDOM AND TARGETED FAILURES

Abstract

This study investigates the structural robustness of Astana’s bus transport network using complex network theory. The network was modeled in L-space based on open 2GIS data, where bus stops represent nodes and route segments represent edges. Key metrics, including the size of the largest connected component, mean shortest path length and mean inverse path length, were analyzed under both random and targeted failure scenarios. The results show that the network maintains high resilience to random disruptions but is highly vulnerable to targeted removals of high-betweenness nodes and bridge edges, which act as critical connectors between major urban areas. Their removal leads to rapid fragmentation and a collapse of global connectivity. The findings highlight the imbalance between local redundancy and global dependency within the city’s public transport system and provide a foundation for resilience-oriented planning, emphasizing redundancy reinforcement and diversification of inter-hub connections to ensure uninterrupted service during disruptions.